Business energy price forecast: what is driving prices and what to do

Short answer: no reputable source can tell you what business gas and electricity will cost in 2027. What you can do is understand the handful of things that move prices, watch the signals that matter, and choose a contract approach that suits how much uncertainty you can live with. This page does that without making predictions.

Where prices stand now

The government's Quarterly Energy Prices publication (September 2026) puts the average non-domestic price for April to June 2026 at 24.51p/kWh for electricity and 5.28p/kWh for gas, both including the Climate Change Levy. These are averages across all sizes of business, so your own quote will differ.

Prices on offer today are higher than that for many small firms. A comparison site's October 2026 panel averages for fixed deals were about 28.4p/kWh electricity for micro businesses and 8.8p/kWh gas, with daily standing charges on top. Treat those as indicative only; they come from a commercial publisher, not an official statistic.

There is no Ofgem price cap on business energy, so nothing limits how far a supplier's offer can rise or fall. The household cap does not apply to you (see business energy price cap).

What is pushing wholesale prices at the moment

Wholesale means the price suppliers and traders pay for gas and power before network charges, levies and margin are added. Industry commentary published for landlords by the NRLA in September and October 2026 pointed to three things:

• Middle East tension. Stalled US and Iran talks kept gas markets nervous, and ongoing conflict has been a major source of volatility through 2026.
• Low European gas storage. Storage below the seasonal norm makes buyers worry about a cold winter.
• Weather and wind. A sudden drop in wind output at the start of October lifted day-ahead power; that is one reason power prices jump around from week to week.

The same commentary said forward prices (what traders pay today for delivery later) for 2027 were well above where they started 2026. That is one publisher's reading of a market that changes daily, so we do not repeat its figures here, but it explains why quotes for next year are not cheap. Because electricity prices are usually set by gas-fired power stations, gas moves both of your bills (more on that in why electricity follows gas).

The part of your bill that is not wholesale

Wholesale is only part of what you pay. Network charges (the cost of wires and pipes) and policy levies, often called "non-commodity" costs, make up a large part of an electricity bill. How large varies with your size, region, meter type and contract, and we have not found an official figure for a typical small business, so ask your supplier for a breakdown.

These are changing too. Commercial commentary reported a steep rise in the transmission charge (TNUoS) from April 2026; Moneysupermarket Business put the increase at over 60%, though the effect on any one bill depends on the site and contract. The Climate Change Levy rose to 0.801p/kWh on 1 April 2026 and rises again to 0.827p/kWh on 1 April 2027. Even if wholesale prices eased, these items would not fall away with them. Our guide to non-commodity charges explains each one.

Why forecasts are unreliable

Wholesale prices respond to events nobody can schedule: a pipeline outage, a heatwave, a cold snap across Europe, a political decision. Even professional analysts revise their views every few weeks. Be wary of any "forecast" that gives you a precise figure for next year, and of any salesperson who says now is definitely the moment to lock in or definitely the moment to wait.

Government and regulators avoid price predictions for the same reason. Ofgem's own explanation of wholesale costs says only that continued disruption in global gas markets could keep pressure on prices. It does not forecast them. Our page on whether business energy prices will fall in 2027 covers what would need to happen for them to ease.

A worked example: how much could a wholesale move matter?

Suppose you use 20,000 kWh of electricity a year at an all-in unit rate of 27.2p/kWh. Assume, for illustration, that about 40% of that rate is wholesale energy and 60% is network and policy costs, as an illustrative split, not a measured one.

• Wholesale part: 27.2p x 40% = 10.88p/kWh.
• If wholesale rose 20%: 10.88p x 20% = 2.18p/kWh extra.
• Over a year: 20,000 kWh x £0.0218 = about £435, or roughly 8% on the unit rate.

The point is not the exact figure (your split will differ). It is that a big wholesale swing moves your bill by a smaller percentage, because so much of the bill is fixed in advance by network and levy costs.

How to protect your business without a crystal ball

• Know your end date. The costliest outcome is drifting onto out-of-contract or deemed rates because you missed a renewal window. See business energy renewals and how to find your contract end date.
• Choose your risk level. A fixed contract gives certainty for the term; a flexible one tracks the market. Our comparison of fixed vs flexible contracts sets out the trade-off.
• Get quotes early and compare more than once. Prices move daily and quotes usually expire in hours or days. Check when to switch.
• Cut usage. A kilowatt-hour you do not use is immune to price swings. Start with saving energy in a small business.

Do not delay fixing purely because you hope prices will fall, and do not rush into a long fix purely because you fear a rise. Decide on your budget certainty, then compare offers.

Help from government

There is no general government bill-support scheme for small businesses in 2026; the Energy Bills Discount Scheme closed on 31 March 2024. Targeted schemes exist for energy-intensive manufacturers. See government help with business energy bills.

Next steps

1. Find your contract end date and diary a reminder at least 90 days before it.
2. Work out your annual kWh with the business energy cost calculator.
3. Decide whether you want certainty (fixed) or flexibility.
4. Request several quotes and compare standing charges as well as unit rates.